I'm Clearly Not Smart Enough to Understand Business

On Monday I wrote about how awesome Dredd 3D is and how I don't understand by what criteria it was being judged to have "bombed".  Yesterday I heard something equally baffling on the news about the iPhone 5.

I'm not going to talk about how I feel about Apple products, because its honestly irrelevant.  The product could be a toaster, as this is about sales projections and reporting, not the iPhone 5 as a product itself.

So the iPhone 5 sold 5 million units in 3 days.  That's insane.  That's a shit ton of phones.  More importantly, that was basically the entire stock that Apple had for the initial release.  So the iPhone 5 is "all but sold out".  Okay.  There are basically no more left.  Maybe 100k or something.

So then I hear--in the same breath--that the 5 million unit sales were below the projected sales for the initial offering and as a result Apple's stock price dropped a percent or so.  (here and here)

Wait, WTF?!

Look, you have a fixed number of the things to sell going into the release, and 5 million is a huge number.  Now stay with me here because this is important.  You can't expect to sell more of a thing than you have.  How much more?  Well the projections were between 8 to 10 million units.  Yes, they were projecting Apple would sell 3 to 5 million more units then they had on hand.  In three days.

Here's what I imagine happened in every sales projection meeting leading up to the sale:

"I think Apple will sell 10 million iPhone 5s in the initial offering."

"They only have 5 million of them."

*Coy smile while reclining in office chair* "I know."

*Stunned stare* "You're brilliant!!! I'm going to throw money at you because you are handsome and smart!!!!"

I've learned from this that sales projectionists (that's what I'm calling them now) basically don't know how to count, nor do their bosses.

My opinions of Dredd 3D (no spoilers)

I've been hyping Dredd 3D for weeks now. If you still follow me on Twitter you're probably sick of seeing retweets from @2000AD and @lionsgatemovies promoting the film.  I've been reading 2000AD/Judge Dredd comics for about three years now and he has been my favorite comic book character for almost that long.  So a lot of my friends are wondering what I thought of the movie.

Not surprisingly, I loved it.  I saw it in 3D (RealD3D if it matters) and I do truly believe that it adds a lot to the film.  I'd like to see it in the theatre again if I have time, and I can't wait to own it on DVD and watch it after (and whilst having) a couple of beers.  It was a bit different than I'd expected, but that actually made the movie better.  I thought it would be non-stop high octane action.  It has loads of action, but its not over-the-top.  In fact, its grounded in the real in a very hard way.  Everything looks and feels real, which is key to making the Judges logical.  Mega-City One has to be a shit hole out of control and it feels like it is. Its a place you'd never want to live.  The film also brilliantly captured 2000AD's dark humor, which I wasn't expecting.

But I didn't write a whole blog post to give a review of the movie.  I'd like to talk about some math.

When Dredd 3D opened in the UK a few weeks ago it took #1 at the UK box office with $1.65 million  (apparently the UK box office is pretty small).  So basically the film has to make lots of money on the foreign market (USA being foreign) to recoup its $45M budget.  So what did it do this weekend in the USA?

$6.3 million, placing 6th this weekend.

Of course, there are lots of review sites reporting the numbers saying things like "Dredd is Dead" and "Dredd Bombs".  I'm not sure it has bombed.  Did I hope it would make shit tons of money opening weekend?  Of course.  But look at this shot from Rotten Tomatoes.

Currently, Dredd 3D is rated "Fresh" with a review aggregate score of 77%, so 3 of 4 people liked it.  Compare with the #5 spot for the weekend which is yet another Resident Evil movie that is generally agreed to be shitty but made just a bit more money.  What I find really interesting is that Dredd 3D, although having a low enough opening to be declared "Dead" made nearly half what the number one and two spots made individually.  I don't understand by what criteria Dredd "Bombed".  Lets say it took the #1 spot by making a little more than twice as much. Would it have still "Bombed"?  It wouldn't have made back its budget.  I suspect Dredd will pick up some momentum as word of mouth spreads.  Will it make $50M in the USA (the amount rumored to be need to prompt a sequel)?  I hope so, but I don't know.

Either way, its a badass movie that 2000AD fans can be proud of.

Pointless pictures of MERCS

I meant to blog about the two MERCS gaming sessions I had last week, but I got really busy and didn't have a chance.  But I do have a bunch of cool pictures of the minis mid-game, so I figured I'd post them anyway.

Game summary is as such: I got my ass handed to me in every game.  It was honestly pretty frustrating. I don't remember all the details (otherwise I'd blog about the games rather than just post pics) but I recall making a lot of really bad calls.  Thats the thing about MERCS that is awesome: its a tactics based game. Make a bad call and you can be screwed.

But I also have Good News! I played at Icons this Tuesday (two days ago) and won my first game in a long time!  I basically brought my A-game, got elevation and laid down a good combo of overlapping Suppression and Overwatch.  I even got my Demo by himself up field to throw two grenades.  I took some advice from Brian (one of the creators of MERCS) that focused fire is a solid tactic and it worked out well for me.  It was a six turn "most blood at the end" game.  I killed three models and only lost one. I think I did have some blood on my remaining guys at the end but the score worked out to a clear win for me.  Yay me!  Of course, I forgot to take any pictures! Doh!

Anyway, the two game sessions where I sucked last week:

The first set was at Icons and was a "first to kill three" vs Josh's USCR.  He pwnd me. That's alright. I'm pretty sure I pwnd him in our most recent game. ;)

I'm pretty sure this was one of the few guys I was able to kill. Not 100% on that recollection though.

Whenever I hit somebody with the Incinerator I put the card in front of the model. Otherwise I forget the +2 courage check against their next acton.

The next game was Wednesday night at my place vs Thomas's Waza.  I needed some terrain so I borrowed some from Xavier's plentiful toy boxes.  It worked alright. It was too open though.

A bit frustrated with my lack of variable terrain I finally got the Buildings of Malifaux TerraClips that I'd been drooling over for months.  There goes that item off my xmas list...

I could not be happier with it! Its beautiful and amazing and it will be super fun to play on. It is incredibly variable and lets you make a building the size of a closet as easily as a multi-floor complex! I did a quick test build to see what I could come up with fast and snapped some pics of the end product.

This is like 1/3 of whats in the box! I have it stored in a comic short box with two small plastic totes inside it and four plastic zip top bags! All this terrain for like $70!  INSANE!!!

I made a two floor tavern type of thing with a 2nd floor balcony above the front door and a back side door. Again, this used a small fraction of the pieces that came with my one set, but would be a nice piece as part of a larger MERCS board.

My MERCS CCC Medic for scale. 

Roof removed. Malifaux Silurid also for scale.

Wide staircase in the back of the building. The foot of the stairs is near the back door.

"I've got 1/2 cover, elevation and clear LOS on your gigantic son!"

Bottom floor.

 What I love about these is that if there's action happening on both levels you can just lift one off and play it in some other area! The multiple floors fit together and lift apart so nicely.

You can see the 2nd floor in the back left of the pic. Its still entirely intact.

I can't wait to play a game of MERCS in an "office building" type of setup, and a game of Malifaux on one of the "indoor" locations!

Xavier's First Renaissance Festival

Yesterday we took Xavier to his very first Renaissance Festival, specifically the Maryland Renaissance Festival.  It's the first time Liz & I have been able to get to a ren fest in the last four years, previously having it been a yearly occurrence for most of the 13 years we've been together.  We were also there 5 years + 1 day since we got married (wearing renaissance attire), so it was a big day all around.

I thought Xavier would have a great time.  I wasn't prepared for how much fun he would have!

Liz & Xavier waiting while I get gas before our 1.5 hour drive to the festival. We were lucky & there was no traffic. We got there just as they were opening.

Tickets acquired! He was already having fun before we were even inside!

My Lady and the little prince.

Loving the smiles! We got many compliments on his attire.

They had free pony rides for kids.  After a bit of convincing Xavier said he wanted to ride the pony. I'll be damned but he didn't chicken out like he normally does with that kind of thing. I even had to stop him from taking down the rope barrier and jumping on one of the ponies.  Problem was when we were in line I said "When this pony comes back around then its your turn."  That pony came back and it was HIS DAMNED TURN.  He didn't get upset or anything, he was just super jazzed.

Liz calls this picture "Proud Daddy."  Pretty much.

Waiting in line for a pony. That's totally not Angry Orchard hard cider in my cup.

Ride that pony!

He was having a blast!

Smiles!

Some of the Royal Court.

Bows.

Observing the Royal Court. That piece of paper was from a coin striking booth. Xavier held onto it for like an hour. He loves the designs on the pictures of the coins.

There was a reptile house at the festival! This dude is awesome.

Not surprisingly the reptile house (which was free admission) was one of Xavier's favorite parts. We went back later.

This is where things started to get weird.  They had a dunk tank, or as it was called in ye olde mediaval tymes: Drench-a-Wench.  Xavier wanted to watch.  This is totally normal for him, he loves watching people do things.  A few younger kids tried and they got to stand really close.  Xavier was having a blast watching.  Liz went to a nearby shop to look around while I stayed with Xavier as there was no pulling him away.

I told him when we got to the festival that he didn't have to do anything he didn't want to and if he wanted to do something just ask.  Everyone in line at the Drench-a-Wench had their shots and left.  I told Xavier it was time to go.  He grabbed my hand and said "I want to try!"

I looked at him in shock.  "Seriously?!"

He gave me a big smile.  "Yeah!"

"Are you sure you want to try?"

"Yeah!"

I just started laughing.  "Okay!"

So we head over to the booth and the guy comes over.  "The little man would like to try!"  I was doing that proud daddy giggle.  Fellow dads will know the one.

"How old is he?"

I laughed.  "He's very nearly three."  He smiled and grabbed three balls as I gave him the whole $1 game cost.

By this point Xavier was already over to where he'd seen the little girl in the above picture and I was hurrying to get my camera.  Remember, Liz was nowhere around and I knew I had to grab a picture of this!  The nice gentlemen was telling Xavier to get twice as close as he already was and Xavier had no hesitation complying while I stood way the hell away from him (again, this is all very strange behavior from him. Good! But unusual.)

"Come stand here."

 As Xavier was walking up I heard the "wench" say something about him getting a free one.  I didn't understand until about a minute later what she meant.

Side note: For adult & older kids the wench calls out insults/taunts like at a carnival. For Xavier she was silent, as you'd expect. The sign on the lower right is sad, but probably necessary for some people.

"Try and hit right here."

First ball too low!

Second ball very close!

Third ball even closer!

This is when I figured out what the "free one" was.  The guy picked up a ball off the ground, handed it to Xavier and said "now close your eyes and throw it!"

I got him about to push the button!

 That was the best thing in the world.

Congratulations!

Priceless smile.

Fortunately Liz came over for the last actual throw and saw the rest. Awesome.

After the Drench-a-Wench Xavier found a bunch of people juggling.  Turns out it was a free juggling school.  Xavier was too young to learn, but one of the teachers talked Liz into trying.

Chillin' at the jugglin' school.  Prince-ing it up.

The school was right next to the playground, so we watched Liz learn to juggle one then two balls then went over to the playground.

Two ball juggling in full ren gear!

Another weird thing for Xavier: he played on playground equipment with tons of other kids around. That very rarely happens.

 After that he said he was hungry so we went back over the the juggling school and sat on a bench and ate some lunch.

Liz and her very cool and helpful teacher.

FOCUS.

So it turns out Liz can juggle now!  Who knew!

From there is was mostly general exploring and having fun.

It did not take much to convince him to ride that turtle.

Of course, he loved seeing the elephant and camel.  Wasn't interested in a ride, which suited us just fine.

Majestic creature. Also there's a camel and elephant.

 Eventually it was time to go. That's when Xavier discovered one of his favorite things of the day at a shop near the gate.  A puppet maker.

Xavier crazy loved that thing.  The puppeteer was clearly a super nice guy and very skilled.

Xavier could have stayed with that thing forever.  He's clearly inherited my love of puppets.

He slept the whole way home and that night Liz gave him the map from the festival.  We all sat in bed looking over it and recalling what we did.  We talked about what he liked and asked if there was anything he didn't like.  He didn't like the music that was playing at one of the stages we stopped at (it was damned good music though).  He said it was too loud.  Fair enough.

This morning when he came out of his room he had the map with him. He laid it out in the playroom and set to work studying it.

Basically, it was about as perfect as any day I've ever had.  And I think the same goes for Xavier.